WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:07.040 ♪♪ 00:10.680 --> 00:12.220 Numbers, numbers, numbers. 00:12.220 --> 00:14.220 It's hard to imagine modern-day horse racing 00:14.220 --> 00:16.880 without all the numbers and without all the computers 00:16.880 --> 00:18.480 that have to crunch those numbers, 00:18.480 --> 00:20.960 computers that calculate odds and payoffs. 00:20.960 --> 00:22.700 Indeed, computers have had a major effect 00:22.700 --> 00:25.200 on all kinds of gambling, not just horse racing, 00:25.200 --> 00:27.860 everything from computerized slot machines in Vegas 00:27.860 --> 00:30.600 to massive databases for professional gamblers. 00:30.600 --> 00:33.160 Today, we take a look at computers and gambling 00:33.160 --> 00:36.100 on this edition of the Computer Chronicles. 00:36.100 --> 00:59.360 ♪♪ 00:59.360 --> 01:02.060 The Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, 01:02.060 --> 01:04.300 makers of IBM-compatible computer systems, 01:04.300 --> 01:06.700 including word processing with spelling correction, 01:06.700 --> 01:08.840 communication software, and Hays-compatible 01:08.840 --> 01:11.540 1200 and 2400 baud modems. 01:11.540 --> 01:14.880 Leading Edge, with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. 01:14.880 --> 01:18.080 Leading Edge, leading the way to the information age. 01:18.080 --> 01:20.340 Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, 01:20.340 --> 01:21.680 publishers of Byte. 01:21.680 --> 01:24.220 Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, 01:24.220 --> 01:26.380 software, and languages cover developments 01:26.380 --> 01:29.060 in computer technology worldwide. 01:29.060 --> 01:34.560 ♪♪ 01:34.560 --> 01:35.960 Welcome to the Computer Chronicles. 01:35.960 --> 01:38.660 I'm Stuart Shafae, and with me this week is George Morrow. 01:38.660 --> 01:40.000 George, you got kind of interested down there 01:40.000 --> 01:42.140 at the racetrack, so I got a daily racing form here, 01:42.140 --> 01:43.400 and this little computer. 01:43.400 --> 01:45.440 I enter all the data here from the racing form 01:45.440 --> 01:47.240 into the computer, and the computer predicts 01:47.240 --> 01:49.240 which horses are most likely to win the race. 01:49.240 --> 01:50.520 We'll see if it works. 01:50.520 --> 01:52.340 Seems to me using a computer to figure out 01:52.340 --> 01:53.740 which horse is going to win a race 01:53.740 --> 01:55.380 is really the same thing as using a computer 01:55.380 --> 01:57.380 to figure out, say, which stock is going to win on Wall Street. 01:57.380 --> 01:58.820 I think you're right, Stuart. 01:58.820 --> 02:00.760 People that do this for a living, 02:00.760 --> 02:02.860 that give you odds on horses, are handicappers. 02:02.860 --> 02:06.320 People that do the same thing or advise you about stocks, 02:06.320 --> 02:08.660 I think they admit to handicapping a stock. 02:08.660 --> 02:12.260 So here, computers are helping you form judgments. 02:12.260 --> 02:13.900 They're an analytical tool. 02:13.900 --> 02:15.100 There's another aspect of gambling, 02:15.100 --> 02:16.800 which is the chance part of it. 02:16.800 --> 02:18.640 And there, in games of pure chance, 02:18.640 --> 02:20.240 I think computers are being used to help you 02:20.240 --> 02:22.880 entertain yourself as you put your money in these machines. 02:22.880 --> 02:24.580 George, we're going to see both those examples, 02:24.580 --> 02:25.840 in fact, on the program. 02:25.840 --> 02:28.040 We're going to start out by taking a trip to Reno, Nevada, 02:28.040 --> 02:29.980 to see how computers have revolutionized 02:29.980 --> 02:33.020 the casino business. 02:33.020 --> 02:37.120 Enormous casinos with extravagant neon displays, 02:37.120 --> 02:41.200 stacks of cards and chips on green felt tables, 02:41.200 --> 02:43.260 and clanging slot machines. 02:43.260 --> 02:45.940 These are the traditional symbols of gambling. 02:45.940 --> 02:48.160 But in America's casino capitals, 02:48.160 --> 02:50.980 poker chips are increasingly sharing the floor 02:50.980 --> 02:54.340 with microchips, especially in the slot machines. 02:54.340 --> 02:57.520 Yeah, the poker machine is a prime example of that, 02:57.520 --> 02:59.280 which for all intents and purposes 02:59.280 --> 03:00.740 didn't even exist 10 years ago. 03:00.740 --> 03:06.720 And it's approximately 34% to 36% of the Nevada market today. 03:06.720 --> 03:09.480 At the International Gaming Technology Corporation 03:09.480 --> 03:12.760 in Reno, Nevada, slot machines have little in common 03:12.760 --> 03:15.420 with their clanking mechanical ancestors. 03:15.420 --> 03:18.100 These slots are sophisticated PCs, 03:18.100 --> 03:20.760 controlled by an Intel microprocessor. 03:20.760 --> 03:24.840 And they feature special graphics and sound chips. 03:24.840 --> 03:27.300 They're even designed by computer. 03:27.300 --> 03:30.340 Putting a coin in the slot is almost like booting up. 03:30.340 --> 03:33.340 Basically, when you put your money in the machine, 03:33.340 --> 03:35.620 and let's take the example of a slot machine, 03:35.620 --> 03:38.260 and you pull a handle, at that point in time, 03:38.260 --> 03:42.960 the microcomputer is programmed to pick a random number, 03:42.960 --> 03:46.720 actually compute a random number using a 32-bit random number 03:46.720 --> 03:48.100 generator. 03:48.100 --> 03:50.740 It will then take that 32-bit number, 03:50.740 --> 03:53.660 and it will basically divide it down 03:53.660 --> 03:56.580 to a number which is within the range of the number 03:56.580 --> 04:00.140 of symbols on the real strips in the machine. 04:00.140 --> 04:03.700 And it will determine what the outcome of the game is to be. 04:03.700 --> 04:07.100 Since the game's outcome is determined electronically, 04:07.100 --> 04:09.220 the spinning reels are included just 04:09.220 --> 04:11.660 to preserve the traditional external appearance 04:11.660 --> 04:14.900 of the game, an aspect of great importance to casino 04:14.900 --> 04:15.900 operators. 04:15.900 --> 04:20.220 In some cases, the electronics scare them away. 04:20.220 --> 04:24.220 To be specific, if we have a real machine simulated 04:24.220 --> 04:28.220 on a video device, and we have all kinds of animation, 04:28.220 --> 04:30.700 and I think you may have seen some examples of that, 04:30.700 --> 04:34.260 that didn't necessarily turn on the slot player. 04:34.260 --> 04:38.620 It just was too much of a computer screen, 04:38.620 --> 04:39.780 is our impression. 04:39.780 --> 04:44.140 Whereas in a poker game, it's the same technology involved, 04:44.140 --> 04:47.220 but they love that. 04:47.220 --> 04:49.340 Concealed within the friendly interface 04:49.340 --> 04:52.120 is a high level of electronic security, 04:52.120 --> 04:55.620 such as optical readers that can tell if a coin is being dropped 04:55.620 --> 04:58.720 in or pulled out of the slot, and sensors 04:58.720 --> 05:01.380 that detect if a door is open or if someone 05:01.380 --> 05:03.380 has tampered with the reels. 05:03.380 --> 05:06.460 Slot machines are tied into a local area network that 05:06.460 --> 05:10.020 transmits any discrepancies to the central computer room, 05:10.020 --> 05:14.420 specifying the kind of fault and the machine's number. 05:14.420 --> 05:17.820 At the Harrah's Casino in Reno, a game called Megabucks 05:17.820 --> 05:21.740 uses the latest in fiber optics and even satellite transmission 05:21.740 --> 05:23.540 to tie hundreds of machines together 05:23.540 --> 05:26.020 to a central jackpot computer. 05:26.020 --> 05:28.420 As each coin drops, the amount of the bet 05:28.420 --> 05:30.740 is transferred by fiber optic cable 05:30.740 --> 05:33.100 to the casino's computer center. 05:33.100 --> 05:36.500 The mainframe recalculates and transmits the new jackpot 05:36.500 --> 05:40.220 to an LED display on the casino floor. 05:40.220 --> 05:43.700 The same system operates between casinos around the state 05:43.700 --> 05:45.900 over a satellite link. 05:45.900 --> 05:48.540 Keno is another game that has been radically changed 05:48.540 --> 05:50.500 by computer processing. 05:50.500 --> 05:53.740 While paper tickets are still written out by the player, 05:53.740 --> 05:57.100 all data entry, number reading, and bet tabulation 05:57.100 --> 05:59.660 are done by computer, which can process 05:59.660 --> 06:04.580 the results of the game in about 22 seconds. 06:04.580 --> 06:07.780 Harrah's machines are equipped with more than coin slots. 06:07.780 --> 06:10.020 The new generation of one-armed bandits 06:10.020 --> 06:12.400 is more like the automatic teller machine 06:12.400 --> 06:15.260 at a bank, with some important differences. 06:15.260 --> 06:17.780 You can't make withdrawals or deposits, 06:17.780 --> 06:21.300 but the casino will issue personal identification cards 06:21.300 --> 06:22.740 to any interested customer. 06:22.740 --> 06:37.780 Joining us in the studio now is Robin Cobby. 06:37.780 --> 06:39.740 Robin's president of Computer Sports World. 06:39.740 --> 06:41.860 And next to Robin is Roxy Roxborough. 06:41.860 --> 06:43.620 Roxy's an odds maker from Las Vegas 06:43.620 --> 06:45.300 and generally considered to be the top odds 06:45.300 --> 06:46.180 maker in the country. 06:46.180 --> 06:47.140 George. 06:47.140 --> 06:50.300 Robin, Computer Sports World is a database 06:50.300 --> 06:51.740 of sports statistics. 06:51.740 --> 06:53.100 It's owned by the Chronicle. 06:53.100 --> 06:55.620 How does that work together? 06:55.620 --> 06:57.740 Well, many newspapers in the last several years 06:57.740 --> 07:00.580 have wanted to get involved in new forms of communication 07:00.580 --> 07:03.340 and communication database services. 07:03.340 --> 07:05.100 And Computer Sports World was one 07:05.100 --> 07:08.300 of those companies that was out there that was in a good market. 07:08.300 --> 07:09.540 It was a good concept. 07:09.540 --> 07:11.340 And it was something that the Chronicle was 07:11.340 --> 07:12.980 very interested in pursuing. 07:12.980 --> 07:14.940 This is almost a unique database. 07:14.940 --> 07:16.860 Does anybody else offer anything like this? 07:16.860 --> 07:18.620 Not exactly like this. 07:18.620 --> 07:20.380 We're an online database, which means 07:20.380 --> 07:22.860 that if you have a computer and a modem or a communicating 07:22.860 --> 07:25.580 terminal, you can sign on to us making a local phone 07:25.580 --> 07:27.340 call 24 hours a day. 07:27.340 --> 07:28.460 Wow. 07:28.460 --> 07:30.260 And Roxy, you use this database. 07:30.260 --> 07:33.220 Yes, it's an instrumental part of making the odds. 07:33.220 --> 07:34.780 What's your opinion of it? 07:34.780 --> 07:37.260 Well, I think it's fantastic because it 07:37.260 --> 07:38.940 takes a lot of time away that I used 07:38.940 --> 07:41.420 to have to spend doing handwritten notes 07:41.420 --> 07:42.940 and keeping a lot of statistics. 07:42.940 --> 07:44.540 So it keeps track of everything that you 07:44.540 --> 07:45.580 need to know to make odds. 07:45.580 --> 07:45.780 Right. 07:45.780 --> 07:47.340 And it files and organizes everything. 07:47.340 --> 07:48.460 Were you able, in fact, before you 07:48.460 --> 07:50.020 had computers and databases like this, 07:50.020 --> 07:52.860 keep track of the incredible volume of stats and numbers 07:52.860 --> 07:53.700 to make odds? 07:53.700 --> 07:55.700 Well, we did. 07:55.700 --> 07:56.500 And we may do. 07:56.500 --> 07:58.260 But we do a much better job now. 07:58.260 --> 07:59.740 So you feel that you're a lot more 07:59.740 --> 08:01.460 accurate having this database? 08:01.460 --> 08:02.340 Much more accurate. 08:02.340 --> 08:04.900 And you have to remember, the gamblers have this database, 08:04.900 --> 08:05.180 too. 08:05.180 --> 08:07.620 So that's one of the reasons we need to keep on top of it. 08:07.620 --> 08:09.980 Are you aware of people in the gambling business 08:09.980 --> 08:12.740 that use it as extensively as you do? 08:12.740 --> 08:15.740 Yes, there are players, gamblers that use it, yes. 08:15.740 --> 08:17.460 Robin, let's take a look at the system now 08:17.460 --> 08:18.860 and show us the kinds of things you 08:18.860 --> 08:19.900 can get out of this database. 08:19.900 --> 08:21.980 And we're online right now to your service, right? 08:21.980 --> 08:22.540 Right. 08:22.540 --> 08:25.020 The first thing we're going to want to do is, right now, 08:25.020 --> 08:26.140 we're looking at it live. 08:26.140 --> 08:30.260 So we're watching the information come right in. 08:30.260 --> 08:31.980 The first thing a subscriber would see, 08:31.980 --> 08:32.940 it's very easy to use. 08:32.940 --> 08:36.620 You'd get you only go in by entering three-digit codes. 08:36.620 --> 08:38.660 And you'll get a menu that looks like this 08:38.660 --> 08:39.740 that'll lead you to that. 08:39.740 --> 08:42.060 Right now, we're looking at information coming in live. 08:42.060 --> 08:44.180 If I'd like to look, if I want to look at a match-up, 08:44.180 --> 08:46.620 for example, which is a file that Roxy uses quite a bit, 08:46.620 --> 08:49.020 I type in three digits, it immediately comes up. 08:49.020 --> 08:49.940 So you can go anywhere in the system with three digits. 08:49.940 --> 08:52.300 This is an NCAA basketball match-up, yes. 08:52.300 --> 08:52.860 Three digits. 08:52.860 --> 08:53.860 What do you get from that, Roxy? 08:53.860 --> 08:55.300 Whenever you have Georgia Tech and DePaul, 08:55.300 --> 08:57.380 I see right away that DePaul's 13-0 at home. 08:57.380 --> 08:59.380 That means they're unbeaten on their home court. 08:59.380 --> 09:01.620 That's going to make them a pretty good favorite, even 09:01.620 --> 09:03.700 over a good ACC team like Georgia Tech. 09:03.700 --> 09:06.660 I can see that Georgia Tech's only 6-6 on the road. 09:06.660 --> 09:08.420 It also shows me all their spread records. 09:08.420 --> 09:11.260 And it shows me the last five games that each team's played. 09:11.260 --> 09:12.820 OK, so you can get home field advantage, 09:12.820 --> 09:13.780 all that kind of stuff. 09:13.780 --> 09:16.300 What about NBA basketball? 09:16.300 --> 09:17.660 Show us an example there, Robin. 09:17.660 --> 09:20.980 Well, we got a box score we can take a look at. 09:20.980 --> 09:23.220 After each game is over, we go over the box scores 09:23.220 --> 09:25.720 to make sure that all the key players for both teams played. 09:25.720 --> 09:29.420 Here's a game where San Antonio played Dallas last night. 09:29.420 --> 09:31.700 Now, San Antonio's players are coming across right here 09:31.700 --> 09:35.860 where all their starters played and their major reserves. 09:35.860 --> 09:38.420 And then we'll check Dallas. 09:38.420 --> 09:40.300 And this is something you would do every day? 09:40.300 --> 09:41.300 Yes, after each game is over. 09:41.300 --> 09:42.300 What does this show you? 09:42.300 --> 09:44.860 Well, right now I see where Dallas' star point guard, 09:44.860 --> 09:45.900 Derek Harper, didn't play. 09:45.900 --> 09:47.860 In fact, he wasn't even a reserve. 09:47.860 --> 09:49.420 So I'll have to find out why. 09:49.420 --> 09:50.780 Beautiful presentations. 09:50.780 --> 09:51.860 OK, and how do you do that? 09:51.860 --> 09:52.540 What are you doing, Robin? 09:52.540 --> 09:53.700 We go right to the injuries. 09:53.700 --> 09:54.860 314 are the injuries for NBA. 09:54.860 --> 09:56.060 OK, so you've got a special injury database. 09:56.060 --> 09:56.420 Right. 09:56.420 --> 09:58.820 And then we'll check up to see if they have any reason that 09:58.820 --> 10:02.420 maybe Harper didn't play last night for Dallas. 10:02.420 --> 10:05.140 OK, so let's get to Dallas. 10:05.140 --> 10:05.940 What's it tell you? 10:05.940 --> 10:08.340 Well, it says that Harper's got an infected toe 10:08.340 --> 10:11.540 and also reserve guard Al Woods got a strained left shoulder. 10:11.540 --> 10:12.820 They both missed Friday's game. 10:12.820 --> 10:15.140 They're expected to see limited action, if any, on Saturday. 10:15.140 --> 10:16.980 So I know that when they play Golden State tonight, 10:16.980 --> 10:19.020 they'll have to make some slight adjustment in the line. 10:19.020 --> 10:20.780 OK, what about baseball, Robin? 10:20.780 --> 10:22.300 That's a statistics crazy game. 10:22.300 --> 10:23.860 What can you show us on baseball? 10:23.860 --> 10:26.340 Baseball, let me show you the index of our baseball 10:26.340 --> 10:27.820 statistics. 10:27.820 --> 10:32.100 This is where we really have a lot of statistics, 10:32.100 --> 10:33.700 baseball being so statistical. 10:33.700 --> 10:35.220 And we do go back several years. 10:35.220 --> 10:36.540 Look at that, yeah. 10:36.540 --> 10:38.860 So you can see how left-handed pitchers do versus right 10:38.860 --> 10:42.020 handers, how you do on astroturf versus grass, how pitchers 10:42.020 --> 10:44.180 do after so many days off. 10:44.180 --> 10:45.180 It's all there. 10:45.180 --> 10:46.900 And it's very easy to get at, too. 10:46.900 --> 10:48.380 Yes, three digits and you're there. 10:48.380 --> 10:48.780 And Roxy, you would use all this stuff 10:48.780 --> 10:50.380 in putting the line on a baseball game? 10:50.380 --> 10:51.100 I use a lot of it. 10:51.100 --> 10:53.580 The keys are how the teams do against righties and lefties 10:53.580 --> 10:55.180 and day-night performance. 10:55.180 --> 10:56.860 OK, can you tell us who's going to win the pennant this year, 10:56.860 --> 10:57.820 Robin? 10:57.820 --> 10:59.140 We do have the odds on that. 10:59.140 --> 11:00.980 We're probably one of the first up there. 11:00.980 --> 11:02.780 Roxy provides that with us. 11:02.780 --> 11:05.060 Well, if you're a New Yorker, you'll probably be happy. 11:05.060 --> 11:06.820 Because we've got both New York teams' favorite, 11:06.820 --> 11:08.700 the Mets, to repeat and win the National League. 11:08.700 --> 11:10.060 They're seven to five favorites. 11:10.060 --> 11:12.420 And the Yankees, to be the American League champions, 11:12.420 --> 11:13.780 are seven to two favorites. 11:13.780 --> 11:15.360 Roxy, there's lots of different sports 11:15.360 --> 11:16.780 that people gamble on, obviously. 11:16.780 --> 11:18.180 I was wondering, any particular sport 11:18.180 --> 11:20.060 in which the computer is really a big advantage? 11:20.060 --> 11:22.380 Yes, it's the biggest advantage in college basketball, 11:22.380 --> 11:25.820 because we have to chart and track 162 teams. 11:25.820 --> 11:27.140 There's thousands of variables. 11:27.140 --> 11:29.140 There's injuries to chart for every team. 11:29.140 --> 11:31.020 There's just so much that without this service, 11:31.020 --> 11:32.260 it would be almost impossible. 11:32.260 --> 11:33.060 Huge database, then. 11:33.060 --> 11:33.500 Yes. 11:33.500 --> 11:34.340 I guess, Robin, as you said, you're 11:34.340 --> 11:35.860 the Dow Jones of the sports world. 11:35.860 --> 11:36.900 Of the sports world, right. 11:36.900 --> 11:38.300 Robin, Roxy, thank you very much. 11:38.300 --> 11:39.980 As we saw at the beginning of the program, 11:39.980 --> 11:41.900 horse racing depends very much on computers 11:41.900 --> 11:42.900 for its betting system. 11:42.900 --> 11:45.400 And one of the newest and most modern computerized betting 11:45.400 --> 11:47.300 systems is here at Golden Gate Fields 11:47.300 --> 11:48.740 in the San Francisco Bay Area. 11:48.740 --> 11:50.060 Wendy Woods has that report. 11:50.060 --> 12:01.500 While certain traditions at the track 12:01.500 --> 12:04.460 will never fall under the spell of technology, 12:04.460 --> 12:06.420 the business of racetrack betting 12:06.420 --> 12:08.700 has, at many fields, been automated to a level 12:08.700 --> 12:12.180 as sophisticated as the nation's election system. 12:12.180 --> 12:15.220 Unlike the old days of just a few years ago, 12:15.220 --> 12:18.300 relay systems and tallying by individual clerks 12:18.300 --> 12:22.340 have been replaced by massive computerized betting systems. 12:22.340 --> 12:25.260 Here at Golden Gate Fields in Albany, California, 12:25.260 --> 12:28.500 the odds, the race results, and up to $3 million 12:28.500 --> 12:32.120 in bets placed daily pass through seven continuously 12:32.120 --> 12:35.380 operating phone lines to the brains of the operation, 12:35.380 --> 12:39.020 a mainframe at the nearby Bay Meadows racetrack. 12:39.020 --> 12:40.780 Bettors can still go face to face 12:40.780 --> 12:43.740 with humans for their wagers, but the clerks all 12:43.740 --> 12:46.620 use terminals linked up to the system. 12:46.620 --> 12:49.540 The more adventurous bettor can use a self-serve betting 12:49.540 --> 12:53.500 machine or the newest touchscreen terminals. 12:53.500 --> 12:56.220 They bet and collect with vouchers 12:56.220 --> 13:00.420 that can be used for an entire day of winning or losing. 13:00.420 --> 13:02.300 Even the tote board on the track is 13:02.300 --> 13:05.580 controlled and automatically updated by this one computer 13:05.580 --> 13:06.900 system. 13:06.900 --> 13:10.620 Marty Miller of Amtote is the brains behind the operation. 13:10.620 --> 13:13.820 It's actually very simple because we have access 13:13.820 --> 13:15.260 to the computer at Bay Meadows. 13:15.260 --> 13:17.860 And I can go back to just any window in a plant 13:17.860 --> 13:20.820 here and tell them exactly where they stand with their wagers, 13:20.820 --> 13:22.780 how many tickets they've sold, what 13:22.780 --> 13:25.340 they have done in their last four transactions. 13:25.340 --> 13:27.740 Sometimes if they forget where they are, 13:27.740 --> 13:29.340 we can help them balance out. 13:29.340 --> 13:32.580 He adds computerized betting is not only efficient, 13:32.580 --> 13:33.700 it's honest. 13:33.700 --> 13:35.820 22 years, every penny that we've ever 13:35.820 --> 13:39.820 handled in mutual handle has been accounted for. 13:39.820 --> 13:43.260 We know exactly what each clerk sells. 13:43.260 --> 13:46.140 We know exactly on the old system what they cashed. 13:46.140 --> 13:47.460 They would balance to the penny. 13:47.460 --> 13:49.820 We would count the tickets, what the payoffs were, 13:49.820 --> 13:51.060 how much the state got. 13:51.060 --> 13:52.660 Every penny, every penny has been 13:52.660 --> 13:54.340 accounted for over the years. 13:54.340 --> 13:56.460 Things haven't always gone this smoothly. 13:56.460 --> 13:59.140 On the day that new cards were issued for the machines, 13:59.140 --> 14:00.740 the system crashed. 14:00.740 --> 14:02.940 Golden Gate Fields officials soothed tempers 14:02.940 --> 14:05.340 by issuing free rain checks for a day 14:05.340 --> 14:07.620 that the computers were back up. 14:07.620 --> 14:09.940 Amtote's computerized betting systems 14:09.940 --> 14:13.220 are installed in thousands of racetracks worldwide. 14:13.220 --> 14:15.740 And that's a pretty good track record. 14:15.740 --> 14:18.500 In Albany, California, for the Computer Chronicles, 14:18.500 --> 14:19.300 I'm Wendy Woods. 14:19.300 --> 14:32.980 With us in the studio now is Bob Archer, 14:32.980 --> 14:35.660 president of PDS Software of Torrance, California. 14:35.660 --> 14:38.180 Next to Bob is Professor Michael Orkin, co-founder 14:38.180 --> 14:39.740 of Best Bet Software. 14:39.740 --> 14:40.240 George. 14:40.240 --> 14:45.140 Mike, Roxy is a really good, skilled odds maker. 14:45.140 --> 14:48.020 And he seems to have an edge by looking at the data 14:48.020 --> 14:50.180 and understanding where he can get access to it. 14:50.180 --> 14:52.180 But he doesn't seem to be using computers 14:52.180 --> 14:54.300 and doing any analysis. 14:54.300 --> 14:55.460 Can you comment on that? 14:55.460 --> 14:58.220 Well, if he had a program that picked the lines 14:58.220 --> 15:01.580 and there was a bias in it, the bettors would pick up on it, 15:01.580 --> 15:04.620 any slight bias, and they would start betting accordingly. 15:04.620 --> 15:08.020 And as a result, he'd get locked into a system that would 15:08.020 --> 15:10.540 cause the bookmakers to lose. 15:10.540 --> 15:14.500 But couldn't he use a program to keep track of that 15:14.500 --> 15:18.260 and to modify that and to actually become a better odds maker? 15:18.260 --> 15:22.460 Well, I'm sure he uses computers to keep up with data. 15:22.460 --> 15:24.980 But if he had a program that actually picked the line, 15:24.980 --> 15:27.540 he would have to keep modifying it. 15:27.540 --> 15:29.260 Because if there were any biases, 15:29.260 --> 15:31.140 maybe some would occur from time to time. 15:31.140 --> 15:35.780 But when he picks a line, he is going through analysis. 15:35.780 --> 15:36.280 That's right. 15:36.280 --> 15:38.460 But it's a very dynamic process. 15:38.460 --> 15:40.260 And he has to keep up with what's going on. 15:40.260 --> 15:44.420 And there's so many factors that for him to get locked into a program, 15:44.420 --> 15:45.700 which could be very dangerous. 15:45.700 --> 15:48.500 So right now, he's doing better by staying away from a program. 15:48.500 --> 15:48.660 Right. 15:48.660 --> 15:51.860 He's doing better by staying away from a program that actually picks the line. 15:51.860 --> 15:54.380 However, he's relying on computers to provide him 15:54.380 --> 15:55.800 with all of the data that he needs. 15:55.800 --> 15:57.580 Bob, you're handicapping horses now. 15:57.580 --> 15:59.220 Is that also a little bit subjective? 15:59.220 --> 16:01.180 Or can you really reduce that to statistics? 16:01.180 --> 16:03.620 No, it would always be subjective. 16:03.620 --> 16:07.660 The computer is an instrument whereby the user 16:07.660 --> 16:11.700 would be able to manipulate all the data to where he wants it, 16:11.700 --> 16:15.980 so that he has it all in one mode to where he can use it to actually make 16:15.980 --> 16:17.460 his selection from it. 16:17.460 --> 16:20.300 Show us what you would do with your software here in handicapping a race, 16:20.300 --> 16:20.800 Bob. 16:20.800 --> 16:25.380 Well, basically, our program would work under a principle 16:25.380 --> 16:29.700 of entering the data from the racing form for each particular horse 16:29.700 --> 16:31.180 in this particular race today. 16:31.180 --> 16:32.980 So what kind of variables do you have there? 16:32.980 --> 16:37.820 Basically, we have three variables for the race itself 16:37.820 --> 16:40.540 and approximately 11 variables for the horse. 16:40.540 --> 16:41.940 First, you have the horse's name. 16:41.940 --> 16:43.700 His number of starts, let's say, are 12. 16:43.700 --> 16:44.820 He's got three wins. 16:44.820 --> 16:49.540 He's got a total earnings of $67,890. 16:49.540 --> 16:52.220 And he's been away from the racetrack for 23 days. 16:52.220 --> 16:55.660 He was second, let's say, in his last race, had his first call. 16:55.660 --> 16:57.940 Again, this is information you're pulling off the data 16:57.940 --> 16:58.780 in the racing form. 16:58.780 --> 16:58.780 Right out of the racing form. 16:58.780 --> 16:59.740 That's correct. 16:59.740 --> 17:02.140 His track category, let's say he's racing at Santa Anita, 17:02.140 --> 17:04.620 his track category would be number one. 17:04.620 --> 17:06.620 The distance in his furlongs, he went a mile, 17:06.620 --> 17:08.460 so it's going to be eight furlongs. 17:08.460 --> 17:11.060 His speed rating of his best race of the last three 17:11.060 --> 17:14.740 was 90, with a track variant of 12. 17:14.740 --> 17:16.700 He had a top 10 jockey on his back, 17:16.700 --> 17:19.460 and his trainer rating was a 12.33. 17:19.460 --> 17:20.340 OK. 17:20.340 --> 17:22.340 We've now entered profiles for three different horses. 17:22.340 --> 17:24.180 Let's pretend it's a three-horse race now. 17:24.180 --> 17:26.260 Can you go in and analyze these three horses now? 17:26.260 --> 17:26.940 Yes. 17:26.940 --> 17:30.980 We would, at this point, come up with the next screen. 17:30.980 --> 17:34.020 We'd enter zero, and it's going to calculate and put all three 17:34.020 --> 17:35.460 horses in their proper order. 17:35.460 --> 17:36.920 And you've got a power rating suggesting 17:36.920 --> 17:39.300 that Bosto is most likely to win the race among these three 17:39.300 --> 17:39.800 horses. 17:39.800 --> 17:41.140 Bosto, that is correct. 17:41.140 --> 17:43.700 Bosto is the favorite here. 17:43.700 --> 17:47.060 He has a power rating exceeding 12 points. 17:47.060 --> 17:48.940 We're looking for a 3 and 1 half point 17:48.940 --> 17:51.700 spread between the first horse and the second horse 17:51.700 --> 17:54.060 in order to have what we call a playable race, 17:54.060 --> 17:58.020 subject to the handicapper's own personal biases at that point. 17:58.020 --> 18:00.020 Bob, what exactly is the software doing? 18:00.020 --> 18:02.260 How is it coming up with that rating for those horses? 18:02.260 --> 18:05.860 It is comparing the input of all the data 18:05.860 --> 18:10.940 on each individual item to a predetermined set of standards 18:10.940 --> 18:12.620 that it has to compare against. 18:12.620 --> 18:13.620 With a weighting factor. 18:13.620 --> 18:15.420 With a weighting factor to each one of them 18:15.420 --> 18:17.660 that then comes up and compares all 10 of them 18:17.660 --> 18:19.180 horses against each other. 18:19.180 --> 18:21.060 OK, Bob, if I can ask you to pass the keyboard over 18:21.060 --> 18:21.580 to Mike now. 18:21.580 --> 18:23.100 And Mike, you've got a program that 18:23.100 --> 18:25.940 helps a guy betting on football, not the horses, right? 18:25.940 --> 18:26.440 Right. 18:26.440 --> 18:27.780 And what does the software do? 18:27.780 --> 18:31.580 The software has every NFL game since 1979. 18:31.580 --> 18:34.280 And it provides its self-contained database. 18:34.280 --> 18:36.020 It comes on one floppy disk, and it 18:36.020 --> 18:38.860 allows the person interested in football 18:38.860 --> 18:42.060 to ask questions about how teams have done in various situations. 18:42.060 --> 18:43.900 Show us the kinds of questions you'd ask it. 18:43.900 --> 18:45.220 Well, I've entered on the program 18:45.220 --> 18:49.760 now a look at all New York Giants games since 1983, 18:49.760 --> 18:51.340 in which they lost the week before 18:51.340 --> 18:53.020 and played on the road the week before. 18:53.020 --> 18:54.540 And a veteran might actually ask that question. 18:54.540 --> 18:55.220 Yes. 18:55.220 --> 18:56.860 This week, the Giants might be playing at home. 18:56.860 --> 18:57.700 They lost last week. 18:57.700 --> 18:59.580 Maybe they really want to win. 18:59.580 --> 19:02.020 Notice they've won at the top on the left. 19:02.020 --> 19:05.140 They've won against a spread 66.7% of the time. 19:05.140 --> 19:09.380 At the bottom, they've won at home against a spread 61% 19:09.380 --> 19:12.820 of the time, away against a spread two games. 19:12.820 --> 19:14.900 You can also get a list of the games 19:14.900 --> 19:16.740 and see exactly what games were played 19:16.740 --> 19:19.660 under those conditions, what the spread was, whether they won 19:19.660 --> 19:21.020 or lost against the spread. 19:21.020 --> 19:23.360 OK, Mike, things like suppose I had a question about what's 19:23.360 --> 19:24.860 a home field advantage on a Monday night game. 19:24.860 --> 19:26.420 OK, you can look at day of the week. 19:26.420 --> 19:30.180 In fact, let's go down and do that. 19:30.180 --> 19:33.780 And just look at all Monday night games since 1983. 19:33.780 --> 19:35.260 So day of the week is down there. 19:35.260 --> 19:36.180 I'll do. 19:36.180 --> 19:40.100 And in this case, the stats will come up just for the home team 19:40.100 --> 19:41.340 straight up versus the spread. 19:41.340 --> 19:42.820 Is this an important question for a veteran? 19:42.820 --> 19:44.140 Well, it's one of the many things 19:44.140 --> 19:46.340 that a veteran wants to know about when trying 19:46.340 --> 19:47.660 to decide what team to pick. 19:47.660 --> 19:49.000 And what's the program tell you? 19:49.000 --> 19:51.060 Well, that on Monday night, the home team 19:51.060 --> 19:54.500 has beat the spread 59.4% of the time since 1983. 19:54.500 --> 19:55.980 So they got a little bit of an edge. 19:55.980 --> 19:56.300 They have. 19:56.300 --> 19:57.480 Well, they have a little bit of knowledge 19:57.480 --> 19:59.100 there that they might put in with some other stuff 19:59.100 --> 20:00.900 that they'll also find on this database. 20:00.900 --> 20:02.660 Mike, how much of an advantage is it really 20:02.660 --> 20:04.740 for a better to have a piece of software 20:04.740 --> 20:06.020 like this and this kind of information? 20:06.020 --> 20:08.140 Well, it enables the better to answer a question 20:08.140 --> 20:09.060 in a couple of seconds. 20:09.060 --> 20:11.460 It might take them a few hours to do by hand 20:11.460 --> 20:13.540 or maybe not even to be able to answer at all. 20:13.540 --> 20:16.180 So his edge here is he's got a lot of data altogether. 20:16.180 --> 20:16.860 Right. 20:16.860 --> 20:18.260 Mike, Bob, thank you very much. 20:18.260 --> 20:19.760 Now, one of the most popular forms 20:19.760 --> 20:22.500 of gambling in this country is betting on state lotteries. 20:22.500 --> 20:24.900 One of the oldest and most sophisticated state lotteries 20:24.900 --> 20:26.500 is the one in Pennsylvania, where they 20:26.500 --> 20:29.180 use computers quite a bit. 20:29.180 --> 20:31.980 The Pennsylvania Lottery. 20:31.980 --> 20:35.020 Each year, Pennsylvania sells more than a billion dollars 20:35.020 --> 20:36.260 in lottery tickets. 20:36.260 --> 20:38.180 And when the jackpot gets big enough, 20:38.180 --> 20:41.700 that can mean a sales volume of up to one million transactions 20:41.700 --> 20:42.700 an hour. 20:42.700 --> 20:45.340 None of this would be possible without computers. 20:45.340 --> 20:47.220 And indeed, the Pennsylvania Lottery 20:47.220 --> 20:49.860 has a massive investment in computers. 20:49.860 --> 20:53.140 Retailers sell lottery numbers from online terminals. 20:53.140 --> 20:56.860 Computers recreate each day's games on a separate IBM backup 20:56.860 --> 20:59.580 system to ensure the integrity of the games. 20:59.580 --> 21:03.100 Computers are used to analyze sales, project jackpots, 21:03.100 --> 21:05.820 and to monitor the actual betting. 21:05.820 --> 21:07.300 The Pennsylvania Lottery, in fact, 21:07.300 --> 21:09.900 runs one of the most complex computer networks, 21:09.900 --> 21:13.500 with nearly 3,000 terminals on a controlled data system. 21:13.500 --> 21:17.480 The system has 100% redundancy and a hot backup. 21:17.480 --> 21:20.900 So one rarely hears that the computer is down. 21:20.900 --> 21:23.620 In 10 years, and your viewers would be interested to know 21:23.620 --> 21:29.460 that, our uptime is 99.98%, as close to perfection 21:29.460 --> 21:33.540 as you possibly could get with an online system. 21:33.540 --> 21:37.580 I don't remember a major downtime since 1977 21:37.580 --> 21:38.820 when we first began. 21:38.820 --> 21:41.160 One of the primary functions of the computer system 21:41.160 --> 21:44.500 is to constantly monitor the lottery's payoff liability 21:44.500 --> 21:47.020 to make sure that no one can break the bank. 21:47.020 --> 21:50.200 On the Big Four game, which pays odds of 5,000 to 1, 21:50.200 --> 21:52.120 the computer makes sure that the state is never 21:52.120 --> 21:56.460 exposed to a liability in excess of $5 million per game. 21:56.460 --> 21:58.980 If it senses heavy betting on one particular number, 21:58.980 --> 22:01.860 in this case 11-11, it sends out a warning 22:01.860 --> 22:04.240 and then cuts off betting on that number. 22:04.240 --> 22:05.860 Heavy betting on a particular number 22:05.860 --> 22:07.840 often occurs because lottery players 22:07.840 --> 22:10.820 tend to follow common patterns in picking numbers. 22:10.820 --> 22:14.700 For example, years ago when Pete Rose was with Philadelphia 22:14.700 --> 22:19.420 and he had his certain number of hits, they played that number. 22:19.420 --> 22:21.500 They played the Super Bowl score. 22:21.500 --> 22:23.580 They played the Jewish New Year. 22:23.580 --> 22:25.620 They played the Chinese New Year. 22:25.620 --> 22:28.240 While the computer system assures a random drawing 22:28.240 --> 22:31.740 every time, the law of averages takes a while to work. 22:31.740 --> 22:34.300 We've had over 3,100 daily number drawings, 22:34.300 --> 22:36.820 pick three drawings, in 10 years. 22:36.820 --> 22:39.540 However, there are two or three dozen numbers 22:39.540 --> 22:42.640 that haven't come up out of 3,100 drawings. 22:42.640 --> 22:44.620 And there are only 1,000 numbers. 22:44.620 --> 22:46.980 The lottery's computers have many safeguards 22:46.980 --> 22:50.220 to protect against being broken into. Games are shut down 22:50.220 --> 22:54.100 exactly 168 seconds prior to the winning drawing 22:54.100 --> 22:56.420 so that all computer tapes can be removed. 22:56.420 --> 22:59.860 That way no one can enter a winning number after the drawing. 22:59.860 --> 23:02.780 And the computer experts here actually hire hackers 23:02.780 --> 23:04.820 and challenge them to try to break in 23:04.820 --> 23:06.660 so that they can spot any weaknesses 23:06.660 --> 23:08.780 which may exist in the system. 23:08.780 --> 23:10.700 Seven years ago, the Pennsylvania lottery 23:10.700 --> 23:12.540 did fall victim to a scandal, 23:12.540 --> 23:14.820 but it had nothing to do with the computers. 23:14.820 --> 23:17.060 Most of the balls which are used in the drawings 23:17.060 --> 23:20.440 were weighted so that only sixes would rise to the top. 23:20.440 --> 23:22.700 But a slow motion analysis of the drawing 23:22.700 --> 23:24.940 coupled with detailed computer analysis 23:24.940 --> 23:27.260 led investigators to the culprits. 23:27.260 --> 23:30.520 Offline processing showed exactly 23:30.520 --> 23:32.980 where these bets were coming from. 23:32.980 --> 23:35.620 We went to those retailers, found out 23:35.620 --> 23:36.980 who was sitting in the white Cadillac 23:36.980 --> 23:39.220 placing all those bets, and basically 23:39.220 --> 23:42.220 were able to convict on the computer evidence. 23:42.220 --> 23:44.100 But despite all the computers, 23:44.100 --> 23:46.300 when it comes to calculating the payoffs, 23:46.300 --> 23:48.260 no one trusts the computers. 23:48.260 --> 23:49.980 The numbers are crunched manually 23:49.980 --> 23:52.160 with a good old fashioned desk calculator, 23:52.160 --> 23:54.200 some paper, and a pencil. 23:54.200 --> 23:55.640 When you're sitting alone in the middle of the night 23:55.640 --> 23:56.940 giving away millions of dollars, 23:56.940 --> 24:00.360 you have to be absolutely sure you're doing it perfectly. 24:00.360 --> 24:02.900 And that's our look at computers and gambling. 24:02.900 --> 24:04.140 We'll be back in just a minute 24:04.140 --> 24:06.060 with this week's computer news. 24:06.060 --> 24:18.700 I'm Susan Chase, sitting in for Stuart Shafae 24:18.700 --> 24:20.900 in the Random Access File this week. 24:20.900 --> 24:24.660 NCR Corporation unveiled a new line of personal computers. 24:24.660 --> 24:27.140 NCR introduced two AT compatibles, 24:27.140 --> 24:30.420 one 286 machine and one 386 workstation. 24:30.420 --> 24:32.300 The machines are based on NCR's 24:32.300 --> 24:33.980 incremental workstation architecture 24:33.980 --> 24:36.580 and they'll be available later this year. 24:36.580 --> 24:39.060 Hewlett Packard announced three new technical computers 24:39.060 --> 24:41.900 and said that the 930 and 950 business computers 24:41.900 --> 24:45.740 announced in 1986 will finally ship this fall. 24:45.740 --> 24:47.940 All five of the computers are based on the technology 24:47.940 --> 24:51.660 of reduced instruction set computing, or RISC. 24:51.660 --> 24:53.040 Digital equipment and Cray Research 24:53.040 --> 24:54.680 will soon introduce a new interface 24:54.680 --> 24:56.280 between their computers. 24:56.280 --> 24:58.700 The new product, a combination of digital hardware 24:58.700 --> 25:01.020 and Cray software, is part of an effort 25:01.020 --> 25:02.300 to speed up data transfer 25:02.300 --> 25:04.780 between the two companies' computers. 25:04.780 --> 25:05.860 Digital will market the interface 25:05.860 --> 25:08.220 in an effort to step up pressure on IBM 25:08.220 --> 25:10.860 in the scientific computing market. 25:10.860 --> 25:12.620 And now it's time for this week's software review 25:12.620 --> 25:14.900 and here's Paul Schindler. 25:14.900 --> 25:16.680 You know, maybe I would be better at this 25:16.680 --> 25:20.140 if I'd had a computer when I was young. 25:20.140 --> 25:22.300 Well, to help your kids do better, 25:22.300 --> 25:25.700 here's some top flight Macintosh educational software, 25:25.700 --> 25:29.060 Kids Time, a collection of five educational games. 25:29.060 --> 25:31.060 Now first, there's Connect the Dots. 25:31.060 --> 25:33.700 When you're done, the computer redraws it. 25:33.700 --> 25:36.220 Then there's A-B-Key, which takes advantage 25:36.220 --> 25:38.100 of the Mac's sophisticated sound. 25:38.100 --> 25:40.580 It names the letters your child types. 25:41.820 --> 25:44.100 Match It is a matching game with logic. 25:44.100 --> 25:46.020 It starts with a robot puzzle. 25:46.020 --> 25:49.180 Each piece you get wrong, the computer pulls back out. 25:50.100 --> 25:52.660 Kids Notes will play a song and will also allow you 25:52.660 --> 25:54.580 to compose and record your own. 25:55.980 --> 25:59.020 Story Writer reads the story as you write it 25:59.020 --> 26:01.100 or all at once at the end. 26:01.100 --> 26:03.060 ♪ I was walking down the street I saw a chasing leaf rate ♪ 26:03.060 --> 26:06.220 ♪ With a human custodiage ♪ 26:06.220 --> 26:08.700 Kids Time is world-class educational software 26:08.700 --> 26:12.160 for the Apple Macintosh, $50 from Great Wave Software 26:12.160 --> 26:13.700 in Stanford, California. 26:13.700 --> 26:16.140 For the Computer Chronicles, I'm Paul Schindler. 26:17.180 --> 26:19.020 News from the spring COMDEX in Atlanta 26:19.020 --> 26:20.500 has started to trickle in. 26:20.500 --> 26:22.500 Sharp plans to introduce two portables, 26:22.500 --> 26:26.180 one a clone of the PC-AT called the PC-7200 26:26.180 --> 26:28.220 and the other, the PC-4500, 26:28.220 --> 26:30.500 is compatible with the PC-XT. 26:30.500 --> 26:33.020 And Samsung will show off its new clones. 26:33.020 --> 26:35.940 The SAM-88T is designed to be XT compatible 26:35.940 --> 26:39.380 and the SAM-286 is an AT compatible machine. 26:39.380 --> 26:42.160 Finally, Japanese companies are working on a new method 26:42.160 --> 26:44.180 of software distribution that is designed 26:44.180 --> 26:46.340 to eliminate software piracy. 26:46.340 --> 26:47.980 Called the Software Service System, 26:47.980 --> 26:51.300 the product is a box that attaches to existing computers 26:51.300 --> 26:53.440 or could be built into new computers. 26:53.440 --> 26:55.220 Software would not run on the computer 26:55.220 --> 26:56.920 until the box authorized it. 26:56.920 --> 26:59.700 Users would purchase a special card to activate the box 26:59.700 --> 27:02.580 and give credit for any software the user wanted to buy. 27:02.580 --> 27:05.160 Users would be encouraged to copy software 27:05.160 --> 27:07.820 but be prevented from using it without paying for it. 27:07.820 --> 27:10.320 And that's it for this week's Computer Chronicles. 27:12.260 --> 27:14.100 ♪♪ 27:14.100 --> 27:16.820 The Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, 27:16.820 --> 27:19.060 makers of IBM-compatible computer systems, 27:19.060 --> 27:21.460 including word processing with spelling correction, 27:21.460 --> 27:22.660 communication software, 27:22.660 --> 27:26.280 and Hays-compatible 1200 and 2400 baud modems. 27:26.280 --> 27:29.620 Leading Edge, with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. 27:29.620 --> 27:32.860 Leading Edge, leading the way to the information age. 27:32.860 --> 27:35.100 Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, 27:35.100 --> 27:36.420 publishers of Byte. 27:36.420 --> 27:38.980 Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, 27:38.980 --> 27:41.140 software, and languages cover developments 27:41.140 --> 27:43.260 in computer technology worldwide. 27:43.260 --> 27:58.260 ♪♪ 27:58.260 --> 28:23.260 ♪♪